Utica, N.Y. — A majority of likely voters (72%) believe that a modern American electoral tradition will hold and the President's party will lose seats in the upcoming 2010 Congressional elections. Forty-one percent of likely voters believe the Democrats will lose seats, but not the majority in either the House of Representatives or the Senate while nearly one-third (31%) believe Congressional Democrats will lose at least one of their two majorities.
Only 5% believe Republicans will lose seats in the 2010 elections and 14% say it will be a close election and there will not be a major shift either way. Even a majority of Democrats surveyed (56%) believe their party will lose seats in the election, while a majority of Republicans (54%) believe they will gain the majority in at least one house of Congress.    Â
Fifty-nine percent of likely voters say they would be very likely or somewhat likely to vote for a candidate from a moderate of independent party in an election. Democrats are more likely than Republicans to vote for a candidate from a moderate or independent party with more than half of Democrats saying they would be likely to vote for such a candidate (56%) compared to 45% of Republicans who say they would vote for a candidate from a moderate or independent party. One-in-five likely voters (20%) say they would be very likely to vote for a candidate from a moderate or independent party, including 14% of Republicans and 13% of Democrats.
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